The ecological-economic possibilities of a non-rapid energy transition
Just got back from an amazing journey through the current landscape of Ecological Economics thinking, research, and analysis, at CANSEE 2023, held in Toronto. I presented on a topic that several Purdue researchers and I have been working on: The potential rebound effects of the rapidity of the energy transition.
Our hypothesis: a non-rapid transition of our energy infrastructure will be the most effective path to a more socially and ecologically just system that reduces emissions to sustainable levels.
The theory is that some aspects of the transition create negative feedbacks to genuine ecological impact reduction. One major aspect is speed, because a rapid infrastructure build program requires a rapid increase in material extraction and construction capacity. This capacity has an inertia that will outlast the minimal transition required for sustainability. How could we model this system to investigate our hypothesis?
A rapid transition is framed in many different ways, but most often it has these characteristics:
- Construction of zero-carbon facilities should be rapid, Buildout (ZC/y)
- Shift away from fossil fuel facilities should be rapid, Swap (-FF/ZC)
- The purpose of the rapid transition is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (CO2/FF)
The logic of the energy transition is not well developed beyond these factors. The conventional wisdom is that we should by cranking up Buildout and Swap to the highest possible level, we will get the fastest possible GHG emissions reduction and thus the safest possible outcome for the planet.
But of course, technical changes affect the larger economy which is a socio-technical system. It does not respond in the mechanical way that so many of our engineering models of the world expect.
Check out the full presentation and initial model results HERE.
And stay tuned for more! Thank you to the CANSEE organizers for putting together a most dynamic and mind-stretching academic conference.
